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Are all technology leaders destined to be overtaken?

Date: 22 June 2011, Author: Steve Jackson

There has been a lot of mutterings lately about the future of Facebook and this led me to consider whether all leaders in their markets are destined to be overtaken. Is it inevitable or can companies continue to move with the times and stay on top?

There are plenty of examples of seemingly insurmountable corporate giants being overtaken by bright young things who in time will loose their spark. Let's look at a few...

Microsoft

In the 80's and 90's Microsoft ruled the world and the thought of them one day being overtaken was almost impossible to imagine. But today we see them being attacked on many fronts. The likes of Google and Apple are working to remove the PC as the central hub of your technology and move to cloud based solutions.

We are on a path toward accessing software over the internet rather than buying it to install on our PC's. In the near future our data will be stored in the cloud and accessible to all our devices, rather than tied to one device. All of these developments change the landscape, and that challenges Microsoft's position of dominance.

New, younger, more agile companies like Google can enter the market without the historical baggage that slows down the incumbent.

Google

Despite its phenomenal growth and success in the last decade, Google is not immune to becoming stuck in its ways. As this recent blog from a former senior Google engineer demonstrates, the problem of corporate 'back watching' and risk aversion that afflicts so many large established businesses has begun to spread within the maturing Google.

Facebook

Is it really possible that the 750 million worldwide users of Facebook will one day get bored of it and move on to something else? Yes! Some commentators are already predicting that the site has peaked. If you look back just a few years you can see the growth, dominance and decline of services such as Friends Reunited, MySpace, Bebo and then Facebook so it is perfectly reasonable to imagine that Facebook will also one day decline and be replaced because it is just too big to stay at the cutting edge, Twitter is already eating into its relevance.

It is because of this threat that you see Facebook making moves into other areas and revenue opportunities such payment solutions and video to try and differentiate itself.

So what?

I would argue that this pattern of innovation, growth, maturity, stagnation and decline is played out on a smaller scale throughout the business world so what might seem like an impossible job to compete with a large competitor is in fact a realistic goal if you are prepared and able to innovate and change the landscape in your favour.

Can eBay be replaced? Yes. Can Amazon be replaced? Yes. All it takes is imagination.

Source: OSP Group Investments